I would like to share my experience on how I approach non farm payroll & what are the reason behind the high volatility during the news release like Non farm payroll .
As we all now non-farm payroll is the highest impact release on the first Friday of every month. This news tells about the recent grown in U.S employment during the past month & has been the reason why Usd pairs behave strongly if there is strong deviation up or down.
U.S banks and federation policies behave accordingly the release of their employment data and that is the reason why unemployment rate falls from the highs of 8.9& to the lows of 3.6% in the release in May 2019. Since then there is bit of up and down movement notified and not much to speak about.
Unemployment rate in itself signifies and economy deteriorating or expanding as standard of living of people improves if there are less jobless people and that is why Non farm payroll tells us about the recent employment activity and participation rate of people employed in the world’s strong economy .
I use to play too much with the data when I first came to know about the impact and have been caught other side of the trade so many times & don’t know the reason why I’ve missing an edge while trading such release. Later, I stop watching any news and start looking at the chart levels of Eur/usd & usd/jpy and their correlation for the past number of days & then take a look at levels for taking a trade & If chart has nothing to do with release I usually avoid trading on such news release as I usually do.
I would closely watch the euro around 1.1045 area, & would like to see the impact and price action when price approach that area. I am surely looking to short euro after the release, no matter what the news tells us & also the reason bear domination on the pair in the past few weeks .
All the rally in euro dollar has been faded and price usually test the news lows even after rallying strongly and that has happened 10 out of 10 times in the past n number of rallies. So, speaking itself about the pair my target for the pair would be 1.0925 and stops around 1.1070 and entry would be around 1.1045. Still I would look at smaller time frames and set of orders after release and usually I am not expecting too much out of the news because even a strong pick up in unemployemnt rate would be temporarily and price will be settled around today’s lows .
So, stay tuned for the chart and entry levels half and hour prior to release and don’t expect too much rallies up or down before the release tomorrow